NEWS:

26 Apr, 2016


"UMFULA" Project Lead: Professor Declan Conway
Implementation of the “Uncertainty Reduction in Models for Understanding Development Applications” project also known as "UMFULA", “river” in Zulu is underway in Malawi and Tanzania.

"UMFULA" Projects team members which were hosted by LUANAR, led by Principal investigator, Professor Declan Conway from the Grantham Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science were in Malawi meeting with Government shareholders and other private institutions with regards to the projects implementation.

“UMFULA” is a three year project, funded by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). LUANAR is one of eight African institutions participating in the project, alongside five UK universities.

The project is expected to improve climate information for decision making under uncertainty conditions in central and southern Africa.

According to Professor Conway, the project is generating new insights and more reliable information about climate processes and extreme weather events in central and southern Africa and their impacts on water and agriculture. "These insights will support the more effective use of climate information in national and local decision-making. We hope to support planning decisions that will make development more resilient in a changing climate", said Professor Conway.

Professor Conway further stipulated that climate change will in the next few decades affect some of the infrastructure and development programmes that are being designed and financed today. He noted that currently climate information is seldom used in planning processes. UMFULA therefore aims to address this gap. With an understanding of which decisions are made, by whom, and how, the project team will use new climate information to target and inform planning processes". Conway explained.

The project aims to create a change in scientific understanding of Central and Southern Africa’s climate and how the climate will change in five to forty years ahead.

To ensure the information is relevant for decision-making, the team will work closely with development partners in the water, agriculture, and energy sectors in the Rufiji river basin in Tanzania and at the sub-national level in southern Malawi. Researchers will collaborate with stakeholders to understand the links between climate and weather events and on-the-ground development impacts to inform response strategies.

Dr David Mkwambisi from LUANAR who is also leading the “UMFULA” in Malawi said the project will improve weather and climate information and its interpretation which means it can be used to better plan for extreme events, such as the floods and droughts that Malawi already been experiencing. "The project will support planning around resource use, infrastructure investment, and cross-sectoral growth priorities. It will help identify robust and resilient options for adapting to climate change and to other, non-climate pressures, such as demographic change". Said Dr Mkwambisi.

To gain a better understanding of how the climate could evolve in the future, UMFULA is investigating which models most effectively simulate the regional climate. Dr Mkwambisi further alluded that the goal of the project is to generate a clearer description of how the climate will change over the next 40 years, and how these changes will vary from region to region. "The results will improve the understanding of potential changes in water availability, which is relevant for planning investments in water infrastructure and agriculture".

Emmanual Likoya, "UMFULA" Research Fellow, emphasized on the importance of the project with regards to Shire River, a targeted site of the project. Referring to the overwhelming evidence of climate change in Malawi, he said Shire River is showing response to the changes in climate although the river remains a main source of electricity in most parts of southern Malawi. He stipulated that development taking place at Shire River is not adequately taking consideration in the changes in climate due to gaps in capacity and lack of climate services which could lead to detrimental effects on the communities relaying on Shire River.

During the visit, Professor Declan Conway also gave a guest lecture on "Climate Change, Water Resources and Adaptation in Africa" at the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources where Nearly 50 third year undergraduate students in Natural Resources and Environmental Science attended the guest lecture.

In his lecture he gave a background of the science behind climate change and its impact on water resources specifically on Niger, Lake Victoria, and the Nile Basin. He further highlighted the social economic impacts of climate and the need for adaptation and decision making under uncertainty. Professor Conway emphasized the importance of robust decision making which work well even with the inclusion of various uncertainties.

Written By Christie Kang'ombe