NEWS:

23 Jan, 2016


LUANAR researchers and students finalizing research methods.
A multidisciplinary team of researchers from the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR) has embarked on a study that aims to assess the initial impact of the 2015/16 agricultural season associated with El-Nino. Globally, the 2015/16 weather prediction has been linked to El Nino. El Niño and La Niña are complex weather patterns resulting from variations in ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. It is the warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The dry, hot conditions are expected to persist for most of Southern Africa, including Malawi.

According to the Director of Meteorological Services Mr Jeromy Khokwe, the country is experiencing a strong El Nino condition that the country witnessed in 1972/73, 1997/98, 1982/83, season as compared to weak El Nino 1994/95 season and moderate El Nino of 1991/92 agricultural season. The initial months of the 2015/16 rainy season have already shown signs of warmer and drier conditions, and many people are still wondering when the season will end. Observations have shown that across the country, the on-set of rains was delayed into late December 2015 or early January 2016. The prolonged dry spells and abnormal rainfall distribution and patterns is expected to bring huge crop losses especially among farmers a majority of which are small scale farmers who depend solely on rainfall as they cannot afford irrigation systems.

According to the team leader Dr David Mkwambisi, who is an IPCCC expert on climate change and agriculture and Associate Professor of Environmental Sustainability at LUANAR, the study will provide information that will help the government and key stakeholders to put in place strategies to avert challenges associated with the season. “This work will help to understand the weather pattern for the initial phase of the season in key agro-ecological zones, and we will also evaluate how the rainfall pattern is impacting the rural economy”, said Mkwambisi, who is an IPCCC expert on climate change and agriculture, and Associate Professor of Environmental Sustainability at LUANAR.

Principal investigator for the food and nutrition component of the study Dr Alexander Kalimbira added that the study will provide an opportunity to understand how the El-Nino induced weather is affecting food security and dietary quality, and how farmers are copping with the situation, which would ultimately impact on their nutritional wellbeing. “Already, in a non-El-Nino year, undernutrition costs Malawi’s already frail economy an estimated USD 597 due to a wide-range of nutrition insults on the economy, including productivity, said Kalimbira, adding that the study will quantify stresses that households are going through.

The research will also understand decision- making dynamics in uncertainty conditions, and how this is affecting short-term investments among rural people. Local level autonomous adaptation strategies will also be analyzed including the perception of farmers for the rest of the season on weather pattern and expected vulnerability. The team will analyze closely the economic implication associated with the weather pattern and how such outcomes will impact household incomes. The study will further evaluate the support provided to farmers and vulnerable communities by different organizations, and how such support may enhance or hinder adaptation strategies.

The study results will be published as a policy note for the government and key stakeholders, and also provide leads for plausible adaptation mechanisms. Other researchers participating in the research project include Dr Lawrence Mapemba (Agricultural Economist), Dr Joseph Dzanja (Agribusiness Expert), Mr Harlod Chisale (Forest and Climate Risk Expert) and Ms Zione Kalumikiza (Nutritionist). The research is funded by the Government of Norway through the Capacity Building for Managing Climate Change (CABMACC) in Malawi.

By Christie Kang’ombe